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中信证券"quote_1.600030">"Info.3224"/invest/invest/default.html" 分析师发布"Inf" /> 【读研报】中信证券:年底美国通胀可能下降至6.8%-7.3%区间 - 财经直播室

【读研报】中信证券:年底美国通胀可能下降至6.8%-7.3%区间

  新华财经北京6月10日电"stock_1.600030"/unify/r/1.600030" "1,600030">中信证券"quote_1.600030">"Info.3224"/invest/invest/default.html" 分析师发布"Info.3319"/report/" 研报指出,此轮美国通胀核心贡献项为食品、能源、新机动车和二手机动车、运输服务,而除了能源项和二手机动车项,其他项"Info.336"/cjsj/cpi.html" CPI均具有一定的粘性。通胀缓解推动力或主要为原"Info.392"/cjsj/yjtz/default.html" 油价格企稳或一定程度下降、商品需求或继续减弱。而推动通胀保持较高位的因素,主要为今年美国经济衰退概率较低;供应链缓解较慢尤其是汽车行业;俄乌冲突持续的背景下粮食危机导致食品价格增速较高;居民疫情敏感性降低、防疫管控放开、居民消费转向服务以及工资较强增长将推动服务类通胀上升;高企的"Info.3325"/cjsj/newhouse.html" 房价推动租金价格上升。整体而言,若欧美制裁没有进一步加剧,5月以后CPI走势或为倒“N”型。而如果年底原油价格回落至95美元-100美元/桶,则年底通胀或下降至6.8%-7.3%区间内。